A simple theory id developed for the process pi K to pi K near threshold. It is similar to one recently proposed for pi pi to pi pi , and rests on an assumption of smoothness of the scattering amplitudes as functions of the energy-momentum invariants. The Adler PCAC consistency condition is imposed, but instead of current commutators, rho-meson dominance on the mass shell is used to fix overall normalization. The two approaches are connected by the KSRF relation, but because this model depends on two parameters (mass, width) more information is obtained. Thus the model contains P and D waves, and gives improved scattering-length predictions. Comparison with results from crossing-symmetric Regge models suggests that these need important additional terms.