The prediction of the thermal energy confinement time, τth, for ITER size
experiments is based on power law scalings obtained using data sets of present
tokamak results in specific regimes, the most relevant being the ELMy H mode
regime. A thorough statistical approach has provided a best fit to
these data with an estimation of the error bars which forms the basis for the
ITER EDA design parameters. In this article the range of variation of the
main parameters in the database are studied individually and it is observed in
particular that τth depends linearly on the combined variable aκB. Taking
advantage of this linear dependence and of the dependence on the plasma
current, it is shown that the four variables aκB, n, P* = PL/V and qeng, or
equivalently I,
, n and P*, are good parameters which provide a simple fit to
the data, namely: τth = 0.0307 (aκB)n1/2/(P*2/3 qeng) = 2π × 10-3In1/2/(
P*2/3), which satisfies the high-β or
Kadomtsev constraint. This fit is as good as the
best log-linear fit, using the eight variables I, B, R,
, P, κ,
M and n, over the full set of devices used in the databank and it yields the same prediction
for the ITER EDA confinement time. It turns out that the simple best fit used is a gyro-Bohm
scaling. It is also shown that small changes in the density, n and P* exponents
can give a Bohm-like scaling, which is less accurate and pessimistic, but can be
used as a lower bound prediction. The use of this simple scaling law is
illustrated by a proposal to slightly reduce the size and magnetic field of the
ITER EDA design, while taking advantage of the favourable dependence of τth
on κ.