Table of contents

This paper introduces general ideas and some basic methods of the Bayesian probability theory applied to physics measurements. Our aim is to make the reader familiar, through examples rather than rigorous formalism, with concepts such as the following: model comparison (including the automatic Ockham's Razor filter provided by the Bayesian approach); parametric inference; quantification of the uncertainty about the value of physical quantities, also taking into account systematic effects; role of marginalization; posterior characterization; predictive distributions; hierarchical modelling and hyperparameters; Gaussian approximation of the posterior and recovery of conventional methods, especially maximum likelihood and chi-square fits under well-defined conditions; conjugate priors, transformation invariance and maximum entropy motivated priors; and Monte Carlo (MC) estimates of expectation, including a short introduction to Markov Chain MC methods.

This report describes the Bayesian approach to probability theory with emphasis on the application to the evaluation of experimental data. A brief summary of Bayesian principles is given, with a discussion of concepts, terminology and pitfalls. The step from Bayesian principles to data processing involves major numerical efforts. We address the presently employed procedures of numerical integration, which are mainly based on the Monte Carlo method. The case studies include examples from electron spectroscopies, plasma physics, ion beam analysis and mass spectrometry. Bayesian solutions to the ubiquitous problem of spectrum restoration are presented and advantages and limitations are discussed. Parameter estimation within the Bayesian framework is shown to allow for the incorporation of expert knowledge which in turn allows the treatment of under-determined problems which are inaccessible by the traditional maximum likelihood method. A unique and extremely valuable feature of Bayesian theory is the model comparison option. Bayesian model comparison rests on Ockham's razor which limits the complexity of a model to the amount necessary to explain the data without fitting noise. Finally we deal with the treatment of inconsistent data. They arise frequently in experimental work either from incorrect estimation of the errors associated with a measurement or alternatively from distortions of the measurement signal by some unrecognized spurious source. Bayesian data analysis sometimes meets with spectacular success. However, the approach cannot do wonders, but it does result in optimal robust inferences on the basis of all available and explicitly declared information.

Recoil-ion and electron momentum spectroscopy is a rapidly developing technique that allows one to measure the vector momenta of several ions and electrons resulting from atomic or molecular fragmentation. In a unique combination, large solid angles close to 4π and superior momentum resolutions around a few per cent of an atomic unit (a.u.) are typically reached in state-of-the art machines, so-called reaction-microscopes. Evolving from recoil-ion and cold target recoil-ion momentum spectroscopy (COLTRIMS), reaction-microscopes—the `bubble chambers of atomic physics'—mark the decisive step forward to investigate many-particle quantum-dynamics occurring when atomic and molecular systems or even surfaces and solids are exposed to time-dependent external electromagnetic fields.

This paper concentrates on just these latest technical developments and on at least four new classes of fragmentation experiments that have emerged within about the last five years. First, multi-dimensional images in momentum space brought unprecedented information on the dynamics of single-photon induced fragmentation of fixed-in-space molecules and on their structure. Second, a break-through in the investigation of high-intensity short-pulse laser induced fragmentation of atoms and molecules has been achieved by using reaction-microscopes. Third, for electron and ion-impact, the investigation of two-electron reactions has matured to a state such that the first fully differential cross sections (FDCSs) are reported. Fourth, comprehensive sets of FDCSs for single ionization of atoms by ion-impact, the most basic atomic fragmentation reaction, brought new insight, a couple of surprises and unexpected challenges to theory at keV to GeV collision energies. In addition, a brief summary on the kinematics is provided at the beginning. Finally, the rich future potential of the method is briefly envisaged.