Projections of macroeconomic damage from future climate change tend to suggest mild to moderate impacts. This can lead to welfare-optimal climate policies in integrated assessment models (IAMs) that recommend very slow emissions reductions over the coming decades, in sharp contrast with the ambitions of the Paris Agreement. These econometric models assume that weather impacting a single country is all that affects the economy of that country. We examine whether the addition of global weather conditions in the empirical modelling of economic growth affects the projections of the impact of climate change on global gross domestic product (GDP). In effect, we explore whether the interconnectedness of the global economy makes individual countries vulnerable to weather changes that impact other countries. Using three influential econometric models we add global weather to the regressions. We find that this leads to significant worsening of the projections of macroeconomic damage for given future emissions scenarios. Damage to world GDP in 2100 under SSP5-8.5, averaged across both econometric models and climate models increases from ∼11% under models without global weather to ∼40% if global weather is included. Further, we demonstrate that when the damage function used in a recent IAM is estimated from empirical models augmented with global weather conditions, they reduce the welfare-optimal amount of climate change from ∼2.7$\,^{\circ}$C to ∼1.7$\,^{\circ}$C which is consistent with the Paris Agreement targets. Our results highlight the need for econometric modelling and climate science's understanding of extreme events to be integrated much more consistently to ensure the costs of climate change are not underestimated.

While controls over the Earth's climate system have undergone rigorous hypothesis-testing since the 1800s, questions over the scientific consensus of the role of human activities in modern climate change continue to arise in public settings. We update previous efforts to quantify the scientific consensus on climate change by searching the recent literature for papers sceptical of anthropogenic-caused global warming. From a dataset of 88125 climate-related papers published since 2012, when this question was last addressed comprehensively, we examine a randomized subset of 3000 such publications. We also use a second sample-weighted approach that was specifically biased with keywords to help identify any sceptical peer-reviewed papers in the whole dataset. We identify four sceptical papers out of the sub-set of 3000, as evidenced by abstracts that were rated as implicitly or explicitly sceptical of human-caused global warming. In our sample utilizing pre-identified sceptical keywords we found 28 papers that were implicitly or explicitly sceptical. We conclude with high statistical confidence that the scientific consensus on human-caused contemporary climate change—expressed as a proportion of the total publications—exceeds 99% in the peer reviewed scientific literature.

Current anthropogenic climate change is the result of greenhouse gas accumulation in the atmosphere, which records the aggregation of billions of individual decisions. Here we consider a broad range of individual lifestyle choices and calculate their potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in developed countries, based on 148 scenarios from 39 sources. We recommend four widely applicable high-impact (i.e. low emissions) actions with the potential to contribute to systemic change and substantially reduce annual personal emissions: having one fewer child (an average for developed countries of 58.6 tonnes CO₂-equivalent (tCO₂e) emission reductions per year), living car-free (2.4 tCO₂e saved per year), avoiding airplane travel (1.6 tCO₂e saved per roundtrip transatlantic flight) and eating a plant-based diet (0.8 tCO₂e saved per year). These actions have much greater potential to reduce emissions than commonly promoted strategies like comprehensive recycling (four times less effective than a plant-based diet) or changing household lightbulbs (eight times less). Though adolescents poised to establish lifelong patterns are an important target group for promoting high-impact actions, we find that ten high school science textbooks from Canada largely fail to mention these actions (they account for 4% of their recommended actions), instead focusing on incremental changes with much smaller potential emissions reductions. Government resources on climate change from the EU, USA, Canada, and Australia also focus recommendations on lower-impact actions. We conclude that there are opportunities to improve existing educational and communication structures to promote the most effective emission-reduction strategies and close this mitigation gap.

We analyze the evolution of the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming (AGW) in the peer-reviewed scientific literature, examining 11 944 climate abstracts from 1991–2011 matching the topics 'global climate change' or 'global warming'. We find that 66.4% of abstracts expressed no position on AGW, 32.6% endorsed AGW, 0.7% rejected AGW and 0.3% were uncertain about the cause of global warming. Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming. In a second phase of this study, we invited authors to rate their own papers. Compared to abstract ratings, a smaller percentage of self-rated papers expressed no position on AGW (35.5%). Among self-rated papers expressing a position on AGW, 97.2% endorsed the consensus. For both abstract ratings and authors' self-ratings, the percentage of endorsements among papers expressing a position on AGW marginally increased over time. Our analysis indicates that the number of papers rejecting the consensus on AGW is a vanishingly small proportion of the published research.

Much of the world's data are stored, managed, and distributed by data centers. Data centers require a tremendous amount of energy to operate, accounting for around 1.8% of electricity use in the United States. Large amounts of water are also required to operate data centers, both directly for liquid cooling and indirectly to produce electricity. For the first time, we calculate spatially-detailed carbon and water footprints of data centers operating within the United States, which is home to around one-quarter of all data center servers globally. Our bottom-up approach reveals one-fifth of data center servers direct water footprint comes from moderately to highly water stressed watersheds, while nearly half of servers are fully or partially powered by power plants located within water stressed regions. Approximately 0.5% of total US greenhouse gas emissions are attributed to data centers. We investigate tradeoffs and synergies between data center's water and energy utilization by strategically locating data centers in areas of the country that will minimize one or more environmental footprints. Our study quantifies the environmental implications behind our data creation and storage and shows a path to decrease the environmental footprint of our increasing digital footprint.

The consensus that humans are causing recent global warming is shared by 90%–100% of publishing climate scientists according to six independent studies by co-authors of this paper. Those results are consistent with the 97% consensus reported by Cook et al (Environ. Res. Lett. 8 024024) based on 11 944 abstracts of research papers, of which 4014 took a position on the cause of recent global warming. A survey of authors of those papers (N = 2412 papers) also supported a 97% consensus. Tol (2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 11 048001) comes to a different conclusion using results from surveys of non-experts such as economic geologists and a self-selected group of those who reject the consensus. We demonstrate that this outcome is not unexpected because the level of consensus correlates with expertise in climate science. At one point, Tol also reduces the apparent consensus by assuming that abstracts that do not explicitly state the cause of global warming ('no position') represent non-endorsement, an approach that if applied elsewhere would reject consensus on well-established theories such as plate tectonics. We examine the available studies and conclude that the finding of 97% consensus in published climate research is robust and consistent with other surveys of climate scientists and peer-reviewed studies.

As climate change impacts intensify worldwide, assessing climate risks comprehensively is essential for guiding effective disaster risk management and adaptation strategies. This systematic literature review examines the latest developments in Climate Risk Assessment (CRA), focusing on how climate risks are framed and assessed. It explores advancements, ongoing challenges, and emerging opportunities to guide future generations of CRAs. Key findings highlight a more nuanced risk framework that incorporates climate responses, modulating the three risk determinants (exposure, vulnerability, and hazards), as outlined in the latest IPCC assessment. The state-of-the-art concentrates on the temporal and spatial characteristics of hazards, while exposure and vulnerability are increasingly understood as dynamic concepts influenced by socioeconomic changes. Recent developments, such as multi-hazard approaches, risk tolerance integration, and the concept of Climatic Impact-Drivers (CID), provide new perspectives on assessing climate risks. However, managing complexity and uncertainty remain the main operational challenges, underscoring the need for improved CRA methodologies and models, as well as consistent, interoperable datasets. The paper discusses avenues to advance CRA, emphasizing the importance of bridging the gap between academic advancements and practical implementation. Conceptual recommendations include adopting a systemic approach to, for example, better account for the cascading and compounding risks, hazard thresholds, adaptation limits, and risk amplifiers, as well as using storylines to improve CRA communication. Technical recommendations include leveraging emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, machine learning methods and big data analytics to improve real-time risk prediction and modeling. To enhance the CRA practice, the study advocates for greater stakeholder involvement and inclusive governance to ensure that CRAs remain context-specific and relevant. These recommendations, together with strengthened interdisciplinary collaboration and knowledge-sharing, are expected to pave the way for more effective climate risk management, adaptation, and resilience-building strategies.

Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can be traced to five economic sectors: energy, industry, buildings, transport and AFOLU (agriculture, forestry and other land uses). In this topical review, we synthesise the literature to explain recent trends in global and regional emissions in each of these sectors. To contextualise our review, we present estimates of GHG emissions trends by sector from 1990 to 2018, describing the major sources of emissions growth, stability and decline across ten global regions. Overall, the literature and data emphasise that progress towards reducing GHG emissions has been limited. The prominent global pattern is a continuation of underlying drivers with few signs of emerging limits to demand, nor of a deep shift towards the delivery of low and zero carbon services across sectors. We observe a moderate decarbonisation of energy systems in Europe and North America, driven by fuel switching and the increasing penetration of renewables. By contrast, in rapidly industrialising regions, fossil-based energy systems have continuously expanded, only very recently slowing down in their growth. Strong demand for materials, floor area, energy services and travel have driven emissions growth in the industry, buildings and transport sectors, particularly in Eastern Asia, Southern Asia and South-East Asia. An expansion of agriculture into carbon-dense tropical forest areas has driven recent increases in AFOLU emissions in Latin America, South-East Asia and Africa. Identifying, understanding, and tackling the most persistent and climate-damaging trends across sectors is a fundamental concern for research and policy as humanity treads deeper into the Anthropocene.

Background. Around two-thirds of global GHG emissions are directly and indirectly linked to household consumption, with a global average of about 6 tCO₂eq/cap. The average per capita carbon footprint of North America and Europe amount to 13.4 and 7.5 tCO₂eq/cap, respectively, while that of Africa and the Middle East—to 1.7 tCO₂eq/cap on average. Changes in consumption patterns to low-carbon alternatives therefore present a great and urgently required potential for emission reductions. In this paper, we synthesize emission mitigation potentials across the consumption domains of food, housing, transport and other consumption. Methods. We systematically screened 6990 records in the Web of Science Core Collections and Scopus. Searches were restricted to (1) reviews of lifecycle assessment studies and (2) multiregional input-output studies of household consumption, published after 2011 in English. We selected against pre-determined eligibility criteria and quantitatively synthesized findings from 53 studies in a meta-review. We identified 771 original options, which we summarized and presented in 61 consumption options with a positive mitigation potential. We used a fixed-effects model to explore the role of contextual factors (geographical, technical and socio-demographic factors) for the outcome variable (mitigation potential per capita) within consumption options. Results and discussion. We establish consumption options with a high mitigation potential measured in tons of CO₂eq/capita/yr. For transport, the options with the highest mitigation potential include living car-free, shifting to a battery electric vehicle, and reducing flying by a long return flight with a median reduction potential of more than 1.7 tCO₂eq/cap. In the context of food, the highest carbon savings come from dietary changes, particularly an adoption of vegan diet with an average and median mitigation potential of 0.9 and 0.8 tCO₂eq/cap, respectively. Shifting to renewable electricity and refurbishment and renovation are the options with the highest mitigation potential in the housing domain, with medians at 1.6 and 0.9 tCO₂eq/cap, respectively. We find that the top ten consumption options together yield an average mitigation potential of 9.2 tCO₂eq/cap, indicating substantial contributions towards achieving the 1.5 °C–2 °C target, particularly in high-income context.

In light of uncertainties regarding climate sensitivity and future anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, we explore the plausibility of global warming over the next millennium which is significantly higher than what is usually expected. Although efforts to decarbonize the global economy have significantly shifted global anthropogenic emissions away from the most extreme emission scenarios, intermediate emission scenarios are still plausible. Significant warming in these scenarios cannot be ruled out as uncertainties in equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) remain very large. Until now, long-term climate change projections and their uncertainties for such scenarios have not been investigated using Earth system models (ESMs) that account for all major carbon cycle feedbacks. Using the fast ESM CLIMBER-X with interactive CO₂ and CH₄ (the latter typically not included in most models), we performed simulations for the next millennium under extended SSP1-2.6, SSP4-3.4 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios. These scenarios are usually associated with peak global warming levels of 1.5 ^∘C, 2 ^∘C and 3 ^∘C, respectively, for an ECS of ∼3 ^∘C, considered the best estimate in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. As ECS values lower or higher than this estimate cannot be ruled out, we emulate a wide range of ECS from 2 ^∘C to 5 ^∘C, defined as the 'very likely' range by the IPCC. Our results show that achieving the Paris Agreement goal of a 2 ^∘C temperature increase is only feasible for low emission scenarios and if ECS is lower than 3.5 ^∘C. With an ECS of 5 ^∘C, peak warming in all considered scenarios more than doubles compared to an ECS of 3 ^∘C. Approximately 50% of this additional warming is attributed to positive climate–carbon cycle feedbacks with comparable contributions from CO₂ and CH₄. The interplay between potentially high ECS and carbon cycle feedbacks could drastically enhance future warming, demonstrating the importance of properly accounting for all major climate feedbacks and associated uncertainties in projecting future climate change.

The release of global climate projections coupled with the demand for local-resolution climate-forced meteorology has prompted many research groups to downscale these projections using various statistical, dynamical, and current machine learning techniques. Such downscaled datasets are being used to plan infrastructure and other community needs over the coming decades. Faced with roughly a dozen available US downscaled datasets, many practitioners ask, 'What are the relevant differences between datasets?' This work highlights the difficulty of comparing downscaled datasets and illustrates ways in which datasets differ even when using identical climate model input data. We show that substantial variability in precipitation projections arises from downscaling alone and that the downscaled dataset agreement varies depending on global climate projection. This analysis emphasizes the need for greater coordination and movement toward rigorous benchmarking of downscaling strategies within the downscaling research community, à la the land-modeling community, to better quantify downscaling dataset differences, strengths, and weaknesses for practitioners.

Achieving ambitious climate targets, such as greenhouse gas neutrality, requires a broad mix of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) measures across different scales and timeframes. The planning and implementation of these measures necessitate holistic assessment frameworks that transparently and consistently evaluate what is feasible and desirable in both the short and long term. While the development and refinement of such frameworks is increasingly discussed in the context of CDR, a systematic analysis of existing frameworks in light of prevailing requirements is still missing. This study addresses this gap by conducting a systematic literature review of assessment frameworks used for climate change responses, analyzing how they address what we identified as key requirements. By expanding the scope beyond CDR specific assessment frameworks, we identify and derive valuable insights and approaches that can inform their refinement. Following a three-step approach, we first conducted a preceding scoping review to determine key requirements for holistic assessments. Second, a systematic literature review was conducted to identify a broad range of assessment frameworks for climate responses. Third, based on a qualitative content analysis, we examined how these frameworks address the previously identified key requirements. The results reveal that existing assessment frameworks often lack a consistent and transparent conceptual and operational structure. This can lead to misinterpretations and misunderstandings. Policy-relevant aspects such as the integration of temporal dynamics and portfolio assessments, including the investigation of synergies and trade-offs, are rarely addressed, although promising approaches are emerging. Following the current discussion to adjust assessment frameworks for CDR, future research should incorporate both short- and long-term temporal dynamics and strengthen the inclusion of ethical and social science perspectives. By synthesizing existing approaches and identifying critical gaps, this review provides guidance towards more robust and transparent assessment frameworks, supporting well-informed decision-making in the context of CDR.

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is critical in mitigating climate change. Currently, its deployment is largely driven by voluntary actions from private organizations rather than by policy mandates. In this formative phase of the CDR sector, the important role these organizations play is acknowledged, yet there are scarce empirical insights into their perspectives. This study explores the role of private companies in shaping the early CDR innovation ecosystem by conducting 79 interviews with senior practitioners (suppliers, purchasers/marketplaces, investors) actively involved in CDR markets. Examining their motivations, I find themes that range from personal upbringing and caring for the following generations to being catalytic in the creation of a new industry. All motivations are grounded in the recognition of CDR as an important component of global climate change mitigation. Identified challenges stretch across the categories of technology, organizations, policy and regulation, ecosystem, finances, and the public eye. This presents a complex picture, as all actors seek to solve a multi-faceted, concurrent coordination and scaling problem while dealing with a challenging set of uncertainties. For suppliers, the main challenge is to coordinate with other actors while proving their technology and not losing track of their long-term strategies. Investors and purchasers currently struggle to formulate a case that is suitable for their organizations in the absence of regulation. The analysis underscores the underexplored yet significant role of private organizations in CDR governance and market development, thus addressing a gap in the existing literature. In conclusion, I offer directions for measures that support a timely, efficient, and responsible scale-up of CDR.

There is a growing call for transformations to remain within safe and just Earth system boundaries. Coherent visions of desired futures can help motivate and orient such transformations towards Sustainability, but the nature of these transformed futures is not well understood. This gap has inspired a growing body of research on 'preferable' or 'desirable' futures, which can help to unpack what endpoints such transformations to sustainability could entail and what is needed to get there. In this paper, we adopt a mixed methods approach to review the research literature focused on transformative futures so as to gain a general overview of the field and then undertake two qualitative analyses: (i) unpacking the methods, terms and types of outputs produced; and (ii) capturing emergent themes, commonalities and divergences in what is deemed to be a sustainable transformation in the future based on normative visions from either North, South or Global perspectives. Our findings show that the literature landscape on explorative scenarios has significantly increased in the past ten years with most publications led by authors in the Global North. From the fraction of studies that describe desirable futures, visions highlight social, environmental and equity dimensions, but nuances were found between North and South. The visions that suggest the most transformative potential seek a more harmonious human-nature relationship and consider outcomes holistically, but only a fraction offer actual 'alternatives' to the status quo. We find that several gaps remain at the interface of biodiversity/ecosystems and justice, or the integration and impact of diverse knowledges and cultures. Addressing these in participatory, just and creative ways seems of utmost urgency. We hope this review can offer a glimpse of how futures-thinking can contribute to research and action on sustainability transformations, and the insights can inform and inspire future research.

Regional scale marine cloud brightening (MCB) has been proposed as a novel climate intervention to reduce the impact of global warming and associated marine heatwaves on the Great Barrier Reef. The concept relies on artificially generated sea spray aerosols (SSA) at the ocean surface and their transport in sufficient quantities to low-level maritime clouds. A portion of the SSA that reaches cloud height can act as additional cloud condensation nuclei and modify cloud microphysical properties, potentially reducing the amount of solar radiation reaching the sea surface. Although modelling data supports the MCB concept, field experiments demonstrating the dispersion of artificially produced SSA to clouds have not been previously reported. Here, we show that within a field of low-level trade wind cumulus-type clouds, an aerosol plume generated at the sea surface on board a research vessel was rapidly advected to cloud base height. Aircraft measurements conducted during two different sampling strategies, detected the aerosol plume from the vessel's sea water atomisation system just below cloud bases at 700–900 m altitudes. For an estimated surface level aerosol production rate of 4 × 10¹⁴ s⁻¹, aerosol concentrations at cloud base were detected with peak number concentrations of up to ∼1 × 10³ cm⁻³. Although such production rates of aerosol particles are orders of magnitude less than what is envisioned for any practical implementation of MCB, our results indicate that cloud perturbation experiments should now be possible using surface-produced SSA.

Achieving ambitious climate targets, such as greenhouse gas neutrality, requires a broad mix of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) measures across different scales and timeframes. The planning and implementation of these measures necessitate holistic assessment frameworks that transparently and consistently evaluate what is feasible and desirable in both the short and long term. While the development and refinement of such frameworks is increasingly discussed in the context of CDR, a systematic analysis of existing frameworks in light of prevailing requirements is still missing. This study addresses this gap by conducting a systematic literature review of assessment frameworks used for climate change responses, analyzing how they address what we identified as key requirements. By expanding the scope beyond CDR specific assessment frameworks, we identify and derive valuable insights and approaches that can inform their refinement. Following a three-step approach, we first conducted a preceding scoping review to determine key requirements for holistic assessments. Second, a systematic literature review was conducted to identify a broad range of assessment frameworks for climate responses. Third, based on a qualitative content analysis, we examined how these frameworks address the previously identified key requirements. The results reveal that existing assessment frameworks often lack a consistent and transparent conceptual and operational structure. This can lead to misinterpretations and misunderstandings. Policy-relevant aspects such as the integration of temporal dynamics and portfolio assessments, including the investigation of synergies and trade-offs, are rarely addressed, although promising approaches are emerging. Following the current discussion to adjust assessment frameworks for CDR, future research should incorporate both short- and long-term temporal dynamics and strengthen the inclusion of ethical and social science perspectives. By synthesizing existing approaches and identifying critical gaps, this review provides guidance towards more robust and transparent assessment frameworks, supporting well-informed decision-making in the context of CDR.

There is a growing call for transformations to remain within safe and just Earth system boundaries. Coherent visions of desired futures can help motivate and orient such transformations towards Sustainability, but the nature of these transformed futures is not well understood. This gap has inspired a growing body of research on 'preferable' or 'desirable' futures, which can help to unpack what endpoints such transformations to sustainability could entail and what is needed to get there. In this paper, we adopt a mixed methods approach to review the research literature focused on transformative futures so as to gain a general overview of the field and then undertake two qualitative analyses: (i) unpacking the methods, terms and types of outputs produced; and (ii) capturing emergent themes, commonalities and divergences in what is deemed to be a sustainable transformation in the future based on normative visions from either North, South or Global perspectives. Our findings show that the literature landscape on explorative scenarios has significantly increased in the past ten years with most publications led by authors in the Global North. From the fraction of studies that describe desirable futures, visions highlight social, environmental and equity dimensions, but nuances were found between North and South. The visions that suggest the most transformative potential seek a more harmonious human-nature relationship and consider outcomes holistically, but only a fraction offer actual 'alternatives' to the status quo. We find that several gaps remain at the interface of biodiversity/ecosystems and justice, or the integration and impact of diverse knowledges and cultures. Addressing these in participatory, just and creative ways seems of utmost urgency. We hope this review can offer a glimpse of how futures-thinking can contribute to research and action on sustainability transformations, and the insights can inform and inspire future research.

Integrated Assessment Models have become indispensable tools for exploring strategies to mitigate climate change while achieving broader social and environmental goals. However, most modelled pathways assume continued economic growth throughout the century, even for high-income nations. This has sparked calls for modellers to expand their visions of sustainable futures. One suggested approach is post-growth, which shifts the focus of the economy from economic growth to ecological stability, equality, human well-being and enhanced democracy. In this review, we examine current post-growth scenario modelling approaches, spanning national to global scales and single-sector to whole-economy approaches, to identify best practices and key gaps in representing a post-growth transition. We develop a framework for evaluating these scenarios along five key dimensions of post-growth theorisation: feasible technological change, scale-down of harmful production, good life for all, wealth redistribution, and international justice. We then explore current approaches to post-growth scenario modelling, focusing on the types of models used, the mechanisms employed to simulate post-growth scenarios and the representation of post-growth policies. Finally, drawing on the wider post-growth literature, we offer recommendations for improving post-growth model representation, focusing on five main areas: the energy-economy connection, spatial differentiation, sectoral differentiation, the inclusion of different provisioning systems and feasibility considerations.

The large-scale exploitation of offshore renewable energy in floating platforms will increase the use of synthetic mooring cables to secure them to the sea-bottom, because of the need to employ low-cost and lightweight materials to ensure economic viability. The degradation of these cables will release microplastic particles to the ocean, causing environmental impacts that have so far received little attention. Here, we try to raise awareness to this potential problem, by explaining the fundamental differences between offshore renewable energy structures and traditional ones, such as oil platforms, in what concerns their economics and layout at sea, listing the most relevant materials for mooring cables, and discussing potential problems and solutions. These impacts have not yet materialised because offshore renewable energy technology is only now reaching commercial viability, but are likely to become an issue in the future.

As climate change impacts intensify worldwide, assessing climate risks comprehensively is essential for guiding effective disaster risk management and adaptation strategies. This systematic literature review examines the latest developments in Climate Risk Assessment (CRA), focusing on how climate risks are framed and assessed. It explores advancements, ongoing challenges, and emerging opportunities to guide future generations of CRAs. Key findings highlight a more nuanced risk framework that incorporates climate responses, modulating the three risk determinants (exposure, vulnerability, and hazards), as outlined in the latest IPCC assessment. The state-of-the-art concentrates on the temporal and spatial characteristics of hazards, while exposure and vulnerability are increasingly understood as dynamic concepts influenced by socioeconomic changes. Recent developments, such as multi-hazard approaches, risk tolerance integration, and the concept of Climatic Impact-Drivers (CID), provide new perspectives on assessing climate risks. However, managing complexity and uncertainty remain the main operational challenges, underscoring the need for improved CRA methodologies and models, as well as consistent, interoperable datasets. The paper discusses avenues to advance CRA, emphasizing the importance of bridging the gap between academic advancements and practical implementation. Conceptual recommendations include adopting a systemic approach to, for example, better account for the cascading and compounding risks, hazard thresholds, adaptation limits, and risk amplifiers, as well as using storylines to improve CRA communication. Technical recommendations include leveraging emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, machine learning methods and big data analytics to improve real-time risk prediction and modeling. To enhance the CRA practice, the study advocates for greater stakeholder involvement and inclusive governance to ensure that CRAs remain context-specific and relevant. These recommendations, together with strengthened interdisciplinary collaboration and knowledge-sharing, are expected to pave the way for more effective climate risk management, adaptation, and resilience-building strategies.

Comment on “Linkage of El Niño-Southern Oscillation to astronomic forcing”

We have not attempted to represent ENSO or any other climate signal with random white noise. Instead, we sought to determine whether a random noise signal could be reproduced with the astronomic harmonics that we used. In addition, we have not claimed to provide a physical explanation that links astronomic forcing with climate variations. Instead, we have followed findings that vertical mixing in the ocean is modulated by astronomic forcing. These findings, which we refer to in our papers, have inspired us to advance the 'big-picture' idea that it is plausible that astronomic forcing certainly impacts the sub-decadal variability of sea level (e.g., Fig. 1) and maybe that of climate indices (e.g., Fig. 2).

Common land organizations and institutions (hereinafter: CLOIs) have been extensively studied worldwide. However, the extent of the European ones is relatively unknown, despite studies and evidence of their long existence. 
This is the first comparative study on the CLOIs at a European regional scale. This study focuses on the Alps as defined by the Alpine Convention, and presents the first comprehensive review of data, and status of CLOIs across and within 6 alpine countries: Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Slovenia, and Switzerland. 
The aim is to assess i) their historical evolution, ii) their institutional arrangements and governance characteristics, and iii) their numbers, surface, and land uses. 
To carry out this analysis, we used secondary data from official statistics, surveys, scientific and grey literature, legislation, and bylaws for each country and each region. 
The results show that CLOIs emerged in the Middle Ages and went through key changes in the 19th century, primarily due to Napoleon's influence in reorganising public administration structures, and post-WWII centralization processes, especially in eastern European countries. In total, we accounted for between 5,785 and 11,063 CLOIs, distributed across 32 types in the 6 countries; among which, CLOIs with full property rights and membership based on farmstead ownership are the most frequent. The main land use for Alpine CLOIs is forest followed by pasturelands. CLOIs holding agricultural land, such as cropland, was instead reported for only one country and was negligible. In this review we have identified and highlighted several scientific gaps for future but urgent research on Alpine commons. This review depicts the need for more systematic and cross-country data collection, which could encourage networking and innovation, stakeholder engagement, and CLOIs' recognition in contributing to the Sustainable Development Goals.

Rapid onset drying events are emerging as a critical driver of ecological vulnerability across India's diverse landscapes. This study investigated the relationship between these accelerated drying phenomena of flash droughts (FDs) and forest fire occurrence across 43 Indian ecoregions from 1979 to 2023, revealing patterns of escalating forest fire risk. We employed a four-criteria methodology based on the Evaporative Stress Ratio (ESR) to identify and characterize FD events. The criteria included temporal duration (minimum 30 days), severity (SESR ≤ 20th percentile), intensification rate (ΔSESR ≤ 40th percentile), and mean intensification (ΔSESRz ≤ 25th percentile). Our analysis uncovered significant regional variations in event frequency, with mountainous regions showing vulnerability - the Karakoram-West Tibetan Plateau alpine steppe experienced 31 rapid drying events, while the Eastern Himalayan broadleaf forests recorded only 10 events. The temporal analysis revealed clear seasonal patterns, with June being the primary onset month in 17.8% of ecoregions, followed by January and October, each dominating 14% of regions. Critically, 79.1% of ecoregions showed increasing forest fire trends from 2001 to 2023, with the Orissa semi-evergreen forests displaying significant vulnerability. High-altitude and semi-arid regions showed statistically significant positive correlations between rapid drying frequency and fire incidents (r = 0.68, p = 0.002 in Karakoram-West Tibetan Plateau alpine steppe; r = 0.59, p = 0.004 in Thar desert), suggesting that accelerated moisture depletion creates conditions conducive to fire outbreaks in these vulnerable ecosystems. Most ecoregions experienced these drying events for 1-2% of the study period, indicating that even brief episodes of rapid desiccation can trigger lasting ecological impacts. These findings highlight the urgent need for integrated drought-fire management strategies that account for the unique challenges posed by rapid onset drying events in different ecological contexts.

Carbon footprint is vital for the sustainable development of sugarcane industry. In this study, a systematic investigation involving a life cycle approach, structure analysis, sensitivity analysis and the individual fixed regression was conducted on the structure, changing trends and driving factors of carbon footprint in Chinese sugarcane industry from 2012 to 2021. Results showed that the national average value of carbon footprint per unit area was 7.8317 t CO2e ha-1, whereas the average carbon footprint of yield and output were 0.1029 t CO2e t-1 and 0.2311 kg CO2e yuan-1, respectively. Notably, significant differences were observed in the carbon footprint of each main production region. Due to regional natural resource conditions, variations in industrial structure and differences in cultivation technology, Guangdong had the highest average carbon footprint per unit area (8.8213 t CO2e ha-1), while Hainan exhibited the lowest carbon footprint per unit area (7.0263 t CO2e ha-1), which was 79.65% of that in Guangdong. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that when the major carbon source varies ±40%, the indirect sensitivity coefficient was 0.9750. Interestingly, Yunnan displayed the highest direct sensitivity (0.9802), while the weakest direct sensitivity (0.6098) was observed in Guangxi. At both natural and social levels, the main drivers of carbon footprint in sugarcane were fertilizer, agricultural film, sugarcane machinery and the disposable income of rural residents. From all the above, optimizing cultivation practices and machinery use, reducing fertilizer and agricultural film inputs while maintaining high yield and high sugar production and low-carbon utilization of straw represent the three directions for low-carbon sugarcane production in the future.