The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is the world's strongest ocean current and plays a disproportionate role in the climate system due to its role as a conduit for major ocean basins. This current system is linked to the ocean's vertical overturning circulation, and is thus pivotal to the uptake of heat and CO₂ in the ocean. The strength of the ACC has varied substantially across warm and cold climates in Earth's past, but the exact dynamical drivers of this change remain elusive. This is in part because ocean models have historically been unable to adequately resolve the small-scale processes that control current strength. Here, we assess a global ocean model simulation which resolves such processes to diagnose the impact of changing thermal, haline and wind conditions on the strength of the ACC. Our results show that, by 2050, the strength of the ACC declines by ∼20% for a high-emissions scenario. This decline is driven by meltwater from ice shelves around Antarctica, which is exported to lower latitudes via the Antarctic Intermediate Water. This process weakens the zonal density stratification historically supported by surface temperature gradients, resulting in a slowdown of sub-surface zonal currents. Such a decline in transport, if realised, would have major implications on the global ocean circulation.

While controls over the Earth's climate system have undergone rigorous hypothesis-testing since the 1800s, questions over the scientific consensus of the role of human activities in modern climate change continue to arise in public settings. We update previous efforts to quantify the scientific consensus on climate change by searching the recent literature for papers sceptical of anthropogenic-caused global warming. From a dataset of 88125 climate-related papers published since 2012, when this question was last addressed comprehensively, we examine a randomized subset of 3000 such publications. We also use a second sample-weighted approach that was specifically biased with keywords to help identify any sceptical peer-reviewed papers in the whole dataset. We identify four sceptical papers out of the sub-set of 3000, as evidenced by abstracts that were rated as implicitly or explicitly sceptical of human-caused global warming. In our sample utilizing pre-identified sceptical keywords we found 28 papers that were implicitly or explicitly sceptical. We conclude with high statistical confidence that the scientific consensus on human-caused contemporary climate change—expressed as a proportion of the total publications—exceeds 99% in the peer reviewed scientific literature.

We analyze the evolution of the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming (AGW) in the peer-reviewed scientific literature, examining 11 944 climate abstracts from 1991–2011 matching the topics 'global climate change' or 'global warming'. We find that 66.4% of abstracts expressed no position on AGW, 32.6% endorsed AGW, 0.7% rejected AGW and 0.3% were uncertain about the cause of global warming. Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming. In a second phase of this study, we invited authors to rate their own papers. Compared to abstract ratings, a smaller percentage of self-rated papers expressed no position on AGW (35.5%). Among self-rated papers expressing a position on AGW, 97.2% endorsed the consensus. For both abstract ratings and authors' self-ratings, the percentage of endorsements among papers expressing a position on AGW marginally increased over time. Our analysis indicates that the number of papers rejecting the consensus on AGW is a vanishingly small proportion of the published research.

Current anthropogenic climate change is the result of greenhouse gas accumulation in the atmosphere, which records the aggregation of billions of individual decisions. Here we consider a broad range of individual lifestyle choices and calculate their potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in developed countries, based on 148 scenarios from 39 sources. We recommend four widely applicable high-impact (i.e. low emissions) actions with the potential to contribute to systemic change and substantially reduce annual personal emissions: having one fewer child (an average for developed countries of 58.6 tonnes CO₂-equivalent (tCO₂e) emission reductions per year), living car-free (2.4 tCO₂e saved per year), avoiding airplane travel (1.6 tCO₂e saved per roundtrip transatlantic flight) and eating a plant-based diet (0.8 tCO₂e saved per year). These actions have much greater potential to reduce emissions than commonly promoted strategies like comprehensive recycling (four times less effective than a plant-based diet) or changing household lightbulbs (eight times less). Though adolescents poised to establish lifelong patterns are an important target group for promoting high-impact actions, we find that ten high school science textbooks from Canada largely fail to mention these actions (they account for 4% of their recommended actions), instead focusing on incremental changes with much smaller potential emissions reductions. Government resources on climate change from the EU, USA, Canada, and Australia also focus recommendations on lower-impact actions. We conclude that there are opportunities to improve existing educational and communication structures to promote the most effective emission-reduction strategies and close this mitigation gap.

Much of the world's data are stored, managed, and distributed by data centers. Data centers require a tremendous amount of energy to operate, accounting for around 1.8% of electricity use in the United States. Large amounts of water are also required to operate data centers, both directly for liquid cooling and indirectly to produce electricity. For the first time, we calculate spatially-detailed carbon and water footprints of data centers operating within the United States, which is home to around one-quarter of all data center servers globally. Our bottom-up approach reveals one-fifth of data center servers direct water footprint comes from moderately to highly water stressed watersheds, while nearly half of servers are fully or partially powered by power plants located within water stressed regions. Approximately 0.5% of total US greenhouse gas emissions are attributed to data centers. We investigate tradeoffs and synergies between data center's water and energy utilization by strategically locating data centers in areas of the country that will minimize one or more environmental footprints. Our study quantifies the environmental implications behind our data creation and storage and shows a path to decrease the environmental footprint of our increasing digital footprint.

Global mean sea surface temperature (GMSST) is a fundamental diagnostic of ongoing climate change, yet there is incomplete understanding of multi-decadal changes in warming rate and year-to-year variability. Exploiting satellite observations since 1985 and a statistical model incorporating drivers of variability and change, we identify an increasing rate of rise in GMSST. This accelerating ocean surface warming is physically linked to an upward trend in Earth's energy imbalance (EEI). We quantify that GMSST has increased by 0.54 $\pm$ 0.07 K for each GJ m^–2 of accumulated energy, equivalent to 0.17 ± 0.02 K decade^‒1 (W m^‒2)^‒1. Using the statistical model to isolate the trend from interannual variability, the underlying rate of change of GMSST rises in proportion with Earth's energy accumulation from 0.06 K decade^–1 during 1985–89 to 0.27 K decade^–1 for 2019–23. While variability associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation triggered the exceptionally high GMSSTs of 2023 and early 2024, 44% (90% confidence interval: 35%–52%) of the +0.22 K difference in GMSST between the peak of the 2023/24 event and that of the 2015/16 event is unexplained unless the acceleration of the GMSST trend is accounted for. Applying indicative future scenarios of EEI based on recent trends, GMSST increases are likely to be faster than would be expected from linear extrapolation of the past four decades. Our results provide observational evidence that the GMSST increase inferred over the past 40 years will likely be exceeded within the next 20 years. Policy makers and wider society should be aware that the rate of global warming over recent decades is a poor guide to the faster change that is likely over the decades to come, underscoring the urgency of deep reductions in fossil-fuel burning.

The consensus that humans are causing recent global warming is shared by 90%–100% of publishing climate scientists according to six independent studies by co-authors of this paper. Those results are consistent with the 97% consensus reported by Cook et al (Environ. Res. Lett. 8 024024) based on 11 944 abstracts of research papers, of which 4014 took a position on the cause of recent global warming. A survey of authors of those papers (N = 2412 papers) also supported a 97% consensus. Tol (2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 11 048001) comes to a different conclusion using results from surveys of non-experts such as economic geologists and a self-selected group of those who reject the consensus. We demonstrate that this outcome is not unexpected because the level of consensus correlates with expertise in climate science. At one point, Tol also reduces the apparent consensus by assuming that abstracts that do not explicitly state the cause of global warming ('no position') represent non-endorsement, an approach that if applied elsewhere would reject consensus on well-established theories such as plate tectonics. We examine the available studies and conclude that the finding of 97% consensus in published climate research is robust and consistent with other surveys of climate scientists and peer-reviewed studies.

Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can be traced to five economic sectors: energy, industry, buildings, transport and AFOLU (agriculture, forestry and other land uses). In this topical review, we synthesise the literature to explain recent trends in global and regional emissions in each of these sectors. To contextualise our review, we present estimates of GHG emissions trends by sector from 1990 to 2018, describing the major sources of emissions growth, stability and decline across ten global regions. Overall, the literature and data emphasise that progress towards reducing GHG emissions has been limited. The prominent global pattern is a continuation of underlying drivers with few signs of emerging limits to demand, nor of a deep shift towards the delivery of low and zero carbon services across sectors. We observe a moderate decarbonisation of energy systems in Europe and North America, driven by fuel switching and the increasing penetration of renewables. By contrast, in rapidly industrialising regions, fossil-based energy systems have continuously expanded, only very recently slowing down in their growth. Strong demand for materials, floor area, energy services and travel have driven emissions growth in the industry, buildings and transport sectors, particularly in Eastern Asia, Southern Asia and South-East Asia. An expansion of agriculture into carbon-dense tropical forest areas has driven recent increases in AFOLU emissions in Latin America, South-East Asia and Africa. Identifying, understanding, and tackling the most persistent and climate-damaging trends across sectors is a fundamental concern for research and policy as humanity treads deeper into the Anthropocene.

Wind energy plays a critical role in mitigating climate change and meeting growing energy demands. However, the long-term impacts of anthropogenic warming on wind resources, particularly their seasonal variations and potential compounding risks, remain understudied. Here we analyze large-ensemble climate simulations in high-emission scenarios to assess the projected changes in near-surface wind speed and their broader implications. Our analyses show robust wind changes including a decrease of wind speed (i.e. stilling) up to ∼15% during the summer months in Northern Midlatitudes. This stilling is linked to amplified warming of the midlatitude land and the overlying troposphere. Despite regional and model uncertainties, robust signals of warming-induced wind stilling will likely emerge from natural climate variations in the late 21st century under the high-emission scenarios. Importantly, the summertime wind stilling coincides with a projected surge in cooling demand, and their compounding may disrupt the energy supply-demand balance earlier. These findings highlight the importance of considering the seasonal responses of wind resources and the associated climate-energy risks in a warming climate. By integrating these insights into future energy planning decisions, we can better adapt to a changing climate and ensure a reliable and resilient energy future.

By some counts, up to 98% of environmental news stories are negative in nature. Implicit in this number is the conventional wisdom among many communicators that increasing people's understanding, awareness, concern or even fear of climate change are necessary precursors for action and behavior change. In this article we review scientific theories of mind and brain that explain why this conventional view is flawed. In real life, the relationship between beliefs and behavior often goes in the opposite direction: our actions change our beliefs, awareness and concerns through a process of self-justification and self-persuasion. As one action leads to another, this process of self-persuasion can go hand in hand with a deepening engagement and the development of agency—knowing how to act. One important source of agency is learning from the actions of others. We therefore propose an approach to climate communication and storytelling that builds people's agency for climate action by providing a wide variety of stories of people taking positive action on climate change. Applied at scale, this will shift the conceptualization of climate change from 'issue-based' to 'action-based'. It will also expand the current dominant meanings of 'climate action' (i.e. 'consumer action' and 'activism') to incorporate all relevant practices people engage in as members of a community, as professionals and as citizens. We close by proposing a systematic approach to get more reference material for action-based stories from science, technology and society to the communities of storytellers—learning from health communication and technologies developed for COVID-19.

Rising greenhouse gas concentrations and declining global aerosol emissions are causing energy to accumulate in Earth's climate system at an increasing rate. Incomplete understanding of increases in Earth's energy imbalance and ocean warming reduces the capability to accurately prepare for near term climate change and associated impacts. Here, satellite-based observations of Earth's energy budget and ocean surface temperature are combined with the ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis over 1985–2024 to improve physical understanding of changes in Earth's net energy imbalance and resulting ocean surface warming. A doubling of Earth's energy imbalance from 0.6±0.2 Wm⁻² in 2001–2014 to 1.2±0.2 Wm⁻² in 2015–2023 is primarily explained by increases in absorbed sunlight related to cloud-radiative effects over the oceans. Observed increases in absorbed sunlight are not fully captured by ERA5 and determined by widespread decreases in reflected sunlight by cloud over the global ocean. Strongly contributing to reduced reflection of sunlight are the Californian and Namibian stratocumulus cloud regimes, but also recent Antarctic sea ice decline in the Weddell Sea and Ross Sea. An observed increase in near-global ocean annual warming by 0.1 $^\circ\mathrm{C}\,\mathrm{yr}^{-1}$ for each 1 Wm⁻² increase in Earth's energy imbalance is identified over an interannual time-scale (2000–2023). This is understood in terms of a simple ocean mixed layer energy budget only when assuming no concurrent response in heat flux below the mixed layer. Based on this simple energy balance approach and observational evidence, the large observed near-global ocean surface warming of 0.27 ${\,}^\circ\mathrm{C}$ from 2022 to 2023 is found to be physically consistent with the large energy imbalance of 1.85±0.2 Wm⁻² from August 2022 to July 2023 but only if (1) a reduced depth of the mixed layer is experiencing the heating or (2) there is a reversal in the direction of heat flux beneath the mixed layer associated with the transition from La Niña to El Niño conditions. This new interpretation of the drivers of Earth's energy budget changes and their links to ocean warming can improve confidence in near term warming and climate projections.

The UK experienced an unprecedented heatwave in 2022, with temperatures reaching 40 °C for the first time in recorded history. This extreme heat was accompanied by widespread fires across London and elsewhere in England, which destroyed houses and prompted evacuations. While attribution studies have identified a strong human fingerprint contributing to the heatwave, no studies have attributed the associated fires to anthropogenic influence. In this study, we assess the contribution of human-induced climate change to fire weather conditions over the summer of 2022 using simulations from the HadGEM3-A model with and without anthropogenic emissions and apply the Canadian Fire Weather Index. Our analysis reveals at least a 6-fold increase in the probability of very high fire weather in the UK due to human influence, most of which is driven by high fire conditions across England. These findings highlight the significant role of human-induced climate change in emerging UK wildfires. As we experience more hotter and drier summers as temperatures continue to rise the frequency and severity of fires are likely to increase, posing significant risks to both natural ecosystems and human populations. This study underscores the need for further research to quantify the changing fire risk due to our changing climate and the urgent requirement for mitigation and adaptation efforts to address the growing wildfire threat in the UK.

Greenhouse gas accounting conventions were first devised in the 1990's to assess and compare emissions. Several assumptions were made when framing conventions that remain in practice, however recent advances offer potentially more consistent and inclusive accounting of greenhouse gases. We apply these advances, namely: consistent gross accounting of CO₂ sources; linking land use emissions with sectors; using emissions-based effective radiative forcing (ERF) rather than global warming potentials to compare emissions; including both warming and cooling emissions, and including loss of additional sink capacity. We compare these results with conventional accounting and find that this approach boosts perceived carbon emissions from deforestation, and finds agriculture, the most extensive land user, to be the leading emissions sector and to have caused 60% (32%–87%) of ERF change since 1750. We also find that fossil fuels are responsible for 18% of ERF, a reduced contribution due to masking from cooling co-emissions. We test the validity of this accounting and find it useful for determining sector responsibility for present-day warming and for framing policy responses, while recognising the dangers of assigning value to cooling emissions, due to health impacts and future warming.

Alluvial sediments bordering rivers of the southern Peruvian Amazon are enriched with gold, which has sustained an artisanal gold mining economy within a biodiversity hotspot for the past several decades. While it is clear that sweeping deforestation by miners has resulted in substantial loss of above-ground carbon stocks and increased greenhouse emissions, the region also harbors a sizable below-ground carbon stock in the form of peatlands, and how these have fared against decades of mining expansion is uncertain. Here, we use Landsat's continuous archival record spanning over 35 years to monitor the expansion of gold mining in a major Amazonian peat complex along the alluvial plain of the Madre de Dios River. We detect over 550 ha of peatland surface area that has been lost to gold mining, potentially accounting for between 0.2 and 0.7 Tg of emitted below-ground carbon. Alarmingly, the majority of this loss (55%) has occurred within the past two years. Mining inside peatlands currently accounts for 9% of total mining, but projections suggest a 25% share by 2027 as mining within peatland is accelerating considerably faster than mining in the alluvial plain as a whole. The startling surge of peatland degradation is synchronous with the arrival of an aggressive mining front into the most distal reaches of the alluvial plain where peatlands are most abundant. Already, 63 of 219 peatlands in the alluvial plain show evidence of mining within their borders, putting over 10 000 ha of peatland area and between 3.5 and 14.5 TgC at imminent risk. The rapid proliferation of gold mining inside peatlands appears to be of such scope as to be an existential threat to the entire peatland complex.

A deeper understanding of land use land cover (LULC) dynamics is essential for the sustainable management of the environment and its natural resources, and importantly how the changes affect the provision of ecosystem services and community livelihoods. This study examined the spatio-temporal LULC dynamics around the Budongo Central Forest from 1995 to 2022 and the implications these changes have on the provision of ecosystem services and the livelihoods of local communities. Data were collected using a hybrid approach involving satellite image classification, post-classification change detection, interviews with 156 respondents and 17 key informants. Survey data were subjected to descriptive statistics, Mann-Whitney U tests and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regressions. The study results reveal a decline in areas covered by wetlands, forests and grasslands due to the expansion of commercial sugarcane plantations, compounded by an increase in the population emanating from migrant workers. While the area under subsistence agriculture had a marginal expansion, local communities perceived that the changes in LULC resulted in a decline in households' food availability, water availability and soil fertility. The study concludes that changes in LULC are associated with significant losses in natural assets and ecosystems. These loses in natural assets have significant effects on the livelihoods of community members. Therefore, there is a need for instituting a participatory land use planning approach in the affected communities to mitigate the effects of the LULC changes. This will also help in fostering sustainable natural resource management within the affected communities.

Extreme heat is an important public health concern, and heat stress exposure and related adaptive capacity are not equally distributed across social groups. We conducted a systematic review to answer the question: What is the effect of social disadvantage on exposure to subjective and objective heat stress and related adaptive capacity to prevent or reduce exposure to heat stress in the general population? We systematically searched for peer-reviewed journal articles that assessed differences in heat stress exposure and related adaptive capacity by social factors that were published between 2005 and 2024. One author screened all records and extracted data; a second author screened and extracted 10% for validation. Synthesis included the identification and description of specific social groups unequally exposed to heat stress and with lower adaptive capacity. We assessed European studies for the potential risk of bias in their assessment. We identified 123 relevant publications. Subjective heat stress appeared in 18.7% of articles, objective heat stress in 54.5%, and adaptive capacity in 54.5%. Nearly half came from North America (47.2%), 22.8% from Asia, and 17.1% from Europe. Publishing increased from zero articles in 2005 to 21 in 2023. Most studies considered socioeconomic status (SES) (78.8%), and many considered age (50.4%), race/ethnicity (42.3%), and sex/gender (30.1%). The identified studies show that lower-SES populations, young people, immigrants, unemployed people, those working in outdoor and manual occupations, and racial/ethnic minorities are generally more exposed to heat stress and have lower adaptive capacity. Most studies of objective heat stress use inadequate measures which are not representative of experienced temperatures. European studies generally have a low or moderate risk of bias in their assessments. Social inequalities in heat stress exposure and related adaptive capacity have been documented globally. In general, socially disadvantaged populations are more exposed to heat stress and have lower adaptive capacity. These social inequalities are context-dependent, dynamic, multi-dimensional, and intersectional. It is essential to consider social inequalities during heat-health action planning and when developing and implementing climate change adaptation policies and interventions.

Approaches to defining a heat wave vary globally. While they are mostly meteorology-centric, there is an increasing need to consider their health implications. Our methodology involved a review of biometeorological indices, followed by a systematic policy search of country-level heat wave definitions to explore the variability of heat protection mechanisms. We analyzed the regional coverage of heat wave definitions and warnings by examining the diversity of variables and threshold limits for 112 countries/territories. We identified the upper-most heat stress limits of biometeorological indices that trigger illness or death. The findings highlight that a large proportion of countries define heat waves based solely on maximum temperature, while only a few countries combine them with minimum temperature and/or humidity. We also find significant geographical variability in the incorporation of temperature limits with most countries in northern latitudes defining heat waves at lower thresholds. We highlight the need for policy reforms towards adjustment of heat warning thresholds to regionally appropriate levels considering rising extreme heat conditions. Given the predominance of maximum temperature-centric approaches, we argue that the focus of heat protection at the policy level must shift beyond projecting heat wave episodes and consider broader heat-health associations beyond mortality.

The increasing impact of global climate change on hydrogeological and hydrological systems presents substantial challenges to the sustainable management of groundwater quality (GWQ). Changes in precipitation regimes, temperature fluctuations, and the frequency of extreme hydro-climatic events driven by climate change accelerate the deterioration of GWQ, thereby threatening ecosystems and human health. In response to these challenges, recent research has increasingly focused on developing and refining analytical models (AM) and machine learning (ML) techniques to understand better and predict the impacts of climate change on GWQ. This systematic literature review critically examines the current state of knowledge on applying AM and ML models in the context of GWQ assessment under climate-induced stressors. By synthesizing findings from a comprehensive review of existing studies, this paper discusses the capabilities, limitations, and future directions of hybrid ML and traditional AM in GWQ prediction, vulnerability, and threshold estimation. The review reveals that while ML approaches significantly enhance predictive accuracy and model robustness, there remain substantial challenges in their application due to the complexity of climate-induced variables and the scarcity of high-resolution data. This paper aims to provide GWQ researchers, water resource managers, and policymakers with an advanced understanding of the interactions between climate change and GWQ and the innovative AM and ML modelling approaches available to address these challenges. By highlighting the potential and limitations of current models, this review offers insights into developing more effective and adaptive management strategies for safeguarding GWQ in an era of rapid climatic change.

While cocaine production is reaching unprecedented levels, a comprehensive review of its environmental impacts throughout its value chain remains absent. This article presents the first bibliometric analysis and systematic review of the literature on the environmental impacts of the cocaine value chain in Latin America, aiming to uncover its specific effects across four stages: (i) coca cultivation, (ii) coca farming, (iii) cocaine manufacturing and (iv) cocaine trafficking. Using a four-step selection process, we reviewed 121 studies published between 1979 and 2022, retrieved from 10 search engines and scientific databases, complemented by an extensive screening of gray literature. The article identifies and quantifies most frequent study sites, research methods, data sources and metrics, followed by a critical review of the research findings. Key findings highlight that land use land cover change and deforestation in the coca cultivation and cocaine trafficking phases, along with soil degradation under the coca farming stage, are the main variables examined to evaluate impacts. Nevertheless, substantial gaps remain in our understanding of how these impacts are distributed across study areas, their applicability to the broader region, and the consistency and rigor of the research methodologies used. The article concludes by incorporating research and policy recommendations that underscore how these environmental impacts are deeply intertwined with the failures of the drug war, emphasizing the need to develop more comprehensive and evidence-based policy responses.

A number of initiatives attempt to delimit the safe operating space (SOS) for human pressures on the Earth system, including the Planetary Boundaries framework. In some cases, data describing regional status are spatially aggregated to provide a global assessment. Several aggregation approaches can be observed, and the chosen approach may impact the conclusions. This study systematically reviews approaches of aggregating regional environmental boundaries and their state at the global level and uses a case study to compare them, aiming to highlight assumptions and implications and show how inconsistent approaches affect the accuracy and comparability of global boundary states. In the comprehensive literature review, 25 studies dealing with spatial aggregation of regional occupation of SOS and 43 associated regional boundary records were identified and categorized according to five spatial aggregation approaches and five types of adjustments that apply across approaches. These approaches were further classified as high- and low-risk approaches based on their assumptions and value judgments regarding precautionary levels and accepted regional transgressions. Notably, key publications dealing with multiple environmental boundaries use different aggregation approaches across the boundaries, potentially introducing biases. The application of these approaches to a case study revealed that the choice can influence the resulting aggregated occupation of SOS substantially, impacting conclusions as to whether or not a boundary is exceeded. To mitigate biases and inconsistencies, future estimates of spatially aggregated regional SOS should transparently communicate the assumptions underlying the chosen aggregation approach, address potential inconsistencies across boundaries, and advance our understanding of spatial propagation mechanisms.

Biochar application to soil shows promise for enhancing soil properties, increasing crop yields, improving water retention, and promoting carbon sequestration. While the direct effects of biochar on soil properties have been studied to some extent, the overall impact on ecosystem carbon balance remains uncertain, as field and lab studies typically do not account for interactions with vegetation. The LiDELS (LiBry-DETECT Layer Scheme) model offers a process-based approach to assess these soil-vegetation interactions and the potential for carbon sequestration in response to biochar application under diverse environmental conditions. This study presents an overview of the LiDELS model and its application to a sandy soil profile under the climate conditions of northern Germany. LiDELS simulates the impacts of biochar on key soil functions, including water retention, thermal properties, evapotranspiration rates, and net primary production (NPP). Model validation shows strong agreement with observed data for soil moisture, temperature, and CO2 flux, confirming LiDELS's applicability across varying soil textures, vegetation types, and biochar treatments. Results indicate that biochar application to sandy soil in Hamburg enhances soil water availability by 35%, increases NPP by 5%, raises soil CO2 by 21%, and has no significant impact on soil respiration or soil temperature. LiDELS thus represents a valuable predictive tool for evaluating environmental feedback of biochar in agriculture and carbon management, supporting sustainable land
 use practices.

The transition zone chlorophyll front (TZCF) has significant implications for marine ecosystems, fisheries and ocean carbon cycling in the North Pacific. Recent satellite observations show TZCF shifting notably northward at a rate of 1.40 degrees per decade from 1998 to 2022, accompanied by a reduction of the chlorophyll concentration in the transition zone. Using CMIP6 models with longer data, we find that this northward shift of TZCF is robust and accelerates with increasing warming. The weakening of zonal wind stress under global warming leads to a shallower vertical mixed layer and reduces southward transport via horizontal Ekman. These changes result in decreased nutrients in the upper ocean, ultimately causing a reduction in phytoplankton biomass in the North Pacific transition zone and a northward shift of the TZCF. Our findings reveal a significant intervention of anthropogenic warming on marine ecosystems and provides a framework for understanding the linkage between anthropogenic warming and phytoplankton dynamics in the open ocean.

Winter warming over the Barents-Kara Seas (BKS) has received extensive attention over the past two decades because it is closely associated with Arctic sea ice loss, winter Eurasian cooling, and extreme cold events over East Asia. However, the role of mid-latitude atmospheric circulation anomalies in resulting winter BKS warming is unclear. This study investigates the relationship between autumn (October-November) East Asian Trough (EAT) and the BKS warming in the subsequent winter (December-February) for the period 1979-2022. The result shows that when the autumn EAT weakens, warming, increased moisture, and sea ice loss are observed in the BKS during winter. The weakened EAT promotes increased sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the mid-latitude North Pacific through increasing solar radiation and reducing cold air activity and positive SST anomalies persist into winter. These continuous warm SSTs from autumn to winter trigger winter Rossby waves downstream, which favors the occurrence of combination of a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like and high pressure over the Ural region, further leading to BKS warming.

The extent of wildfires in tundra ecosystems has dramatically increased since the turn of the 21st century due to climate change and the resulting amplified Arctic warming. We simultaneously studied the recovery of vegetation, subsurface soil moisture, and active layer thickness post-fire in the permafrost-underlain uplands of the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta in southwestern Alaska to understand the interaction between these factors and their potential implications. We used a space-for-time substitution methodology with 2017 Landsat 8 imagery and synthetic aperture radar products, along with 2016 field data, to analyze tundra recovery trajectories in areas burned from 1953 to 2017. We found that spectral indices describing vegetation greenness and surface albedo in burned areas approached the unburned baseline within a decade post-fire, but ecological succession takes decades. Active layer thickness was higher in burned areas compared to unburned areas initially after the fire but negatively correlated with soil moisture. Soil moisture was significantly higher in burned areas than in unburned areas. Water table depth was 10 cm shallower in burned areas, consistent with 10 cm of the surface organic layer burned off during fire. Soil moisture and water table depth did not recover in the 46 years covered by this study and appear linked to the long recovery time of the organic layer.

The global cryosphere is retreating under ongoing climate change. The Third Pole (TP) of the Earth, which serves as a critical water source for two billion people, is also experiencing this decline. However, the interplay between rising temperatures and increasing precipitation in the TP results in complex cryospheric responses, introducing uncertainties in the future budget of TP cryospheric water (including glacier and snow water equivalents and frozen soil moisture). Using a calibrated model that integrated multiple cryospheric-hydrological components and processes, we projected the TP cryospheric water budgets under both low and high climatic forcing scenarios for the period 2021–2100 and assessed the relative impact of temperature and precipitation. Results showed (1) that despite both scenarios involving simultaneous warming and wetting, under low climatic forcing, the total cryospheric budget exhibited positive dynamics (0.017 mm/yr with an average of 1.77 mm), primarily driven by increased precipitation. Glacier mass loss gradually declined with the rate of retreat slowing, accompanied by negligible declines in the budget of snow water equivalent and frozen soil moisture. (2) By contrast, high climatic forcing led to negative dynamics in the total cryospheric budget (−0.056 mm/yr with an average of −1.08 mm) dominated by warming, with accelerated decreases in the budget of all cryospheric components. These variations were most pronounced in higher-altitude regions, indicating elevation-dependent cryospheric budget dynamics. Overall, our findings present alternative futures for the TP cryosphere, and highlight novel evidence that optimistic cryospheric outcomes may be possible under specific climate scenarios.