Vulnerability Assessment with Scarce Information for a Quantitative Flood Risk Model. Case Study Monteria-Colombia

A quantitative flood risk assessment requires that vulnerability and hazard be evaluated quantitatively as well. In our research, we assess the flood risk of a south-east suburb of the city of Montería Colombia. We proposed to assess vulnerability through damage functions development and their incorporation in the flood risk assessment. Risk is quantifying as expected annual economic loss. Vulnerability is estimated based on the relationship between the physical condition and the contents of the households, with their ability to resist flooding. Flood damages in movable property, structures and public areas were stablished through depth-damage functions. Data for construction of these depth damage functions were obtained through a survey and field observations of the entire selected area. In order to identify damage, we have taken advantage of the recent memory of the communities regarding their perception of real damages during a flood occurred in July 2010. Structural elements and movable assets were classified in categories and people were asked about damage in these categories. Additionally, the water marks on walls, doors and other structural elements were identified. In order to quantify hazard, we calibrate a simple hydrological model and a hydraulic model, based in the records and water marks left by the July 2010 flood. A quantitative risk model was applied that incorporates the quantitative risk and vulnerability estimation. Depth-damage functions developed are a useful tool that can be used in other regions in Colombia and Caribbean with similar socioeconomic and climatic conditions. Results shown that it is possible to typify the houses and the movable property by means of the construction of functions and it is possible to obtain the quantitative risk, contributing a practical tool for the urban planning of this zone of the city.